The causes of global warming and climate change!

There are two competing theories for the recent global warming trend.

Most agree that the temperature has increased about 0.6 - 0.7 Centigrade over the last century and that the level of CO2 or Carbon Dioxide a greenhouse gas has been increased in the atmosphere by 25-30% from pre industrial values.

Lets look at some data!

Fig 1. Changes in C14 concentration during the last 1000 years.

Fig 1 is from "Cosmic Rays and Earth's Climate" by Henrik Svensmark

C14 or Carbon 14 which is created from cosmic radiation is the isotope which is best known as the isotope that archeologists use for dating biological archeological artifacts. The change in the C14 concentration in the atmosphere is dominated by variations in solar activity. When the solar activity is high the production of C14 is low, this is due to the shielding effect of the solar wind against cosmic rays.

The sharp drop for C14 during the 20th century is caused by the Suess effect. This effect is due from the burning of fossil fuels which lack C14. Complicating the picture, Carbon14 was also produced by nuclear bomb tests during the cold war.

Fig 2.Solar proxies Beryllium-10 and Sunspot numbers

Solar proxies credit Global Warming Art

Because of the Suess effect, the ratio of Carbon-14 in relation to other Carbon isotopes becomes contaminated with the Carbon released from burning of fossil fuels after 1900. The C14 variation in the atmosphere as an correct indicator of cosmic radiation is less reliable after the start of industrialization.

However Beryllium-10, another isotope doesn't suffer from this effect and is therefore a better indicator of the variation of cosmic radiation for the 20th century. Here again the graph is reversed and you can also see its correlation to the sunspot numbers. From the graph it becomes clear that the amount of Be-10 have been steadily decreasing during the last hundred years indicating a decrease of the cosmic radiation and a more active Sun. The Berrylium-10 is easily dissolved in water and this record is from Greenland ice cores. The half life time of Be10 is about 1.5 million years.

Fig 3. Climate history according to IPCC 1995

From these graphs it becomes obvious that variations in the Sun's solar wind and magnetic activity is a major contributor to variations in the Earth's climate.

Although we have recordings of the variations in the climate from both historical as well as from geological records we don't have an exact measurements of the average temperature with any precision. What we have are rough estimates.

This was the reason that a team led by geophysicist Michael Mann made attempts to recreate a more accurate temperature recording of the earth's climate.

Fig 4. Mann's graph is an estimate from the latest 1000 years temperature variations. Adopted by IPCC 2001

Fig 4. This graph is taken from the UNEP/GRID-Arendal site

This graph is the so called Hockey Stick graph that Michael Mann et.al. created. This graph implies that the temperature variations were relative stable during the period between year 1000 and year 1900. After that time it has increased considerably.

This graph was attacked by global warming skeptics who questioned why they could not find the Medieval Warm period and the Little Ice Age. The reason is that the graph is flawed. The graph corresponds much better to the variation of CO2 than to temperature changes. Learn more on the hockey stick anomalies HERE

Fig 5. Graph which shows the relationship between solar cycle length and the temperature.

Fig 5 The graph is taken From beam Measurement of a CLOUD, Jasper Kirkby, Cern

A stark correlation for the period 1861-1989 between the sunspot cycle length and the temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere was presented by Friis-Christensen and Lassen in 1991. The temperature data comes from 1995 IPCC.

Fig 6. Shows the flux of high energy cosmic rays reaching Earth. Red line - annual averages. The blue line is an 11 yr average

Fig 6. Taken from "Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing?", www.sciencebits.com, Nir Shaviv

The cosmic ray flux measured by ion chambers.

The ion chambers at ground level are sensitive to high energy particles. These particles are from cosmic radiation and originate from supernova explosions with several 10's of GeV. These are the particles responsible for the formation of low altitude cover of clouds. The ionization of the upper atmosphere are mainly made from lower energy particles originating from the Sun. Plot redrawn using data from Ahluwalia (1997).

Also, the decrease in high energy cosmic rays since the 1970's are less pronounced from low energy solar activity, which means that changes in Be10 or direct solar activity are less accurate in quantifying the solar -> cosmic ray -> climate link and its contribution to 20th century global warming. This lack of clear correlation from the solar wind and low energy cosmic radiation during the last decades have been used by some climatologists to try debunk the solar climate connection.

Fig 7. Correlation between high energy cosmic radiation and low cloud cover.

Fig 7. Taken from "Cosmic Rays and Climate", www.sciencebits.com, Nir Shaviv

The cosmic ray flux as measured by Neutron count monitors at low magnetic latitudes. The low altitude cloud cover is taken from ISCCP satellite data sets, by Marsh & Svensmark, 2003.

Another interesting method to monitor the earth's energy balance has been made by a group at CALTECH with a simple and effective method. They have monitored The Earth's Albedo (The Earth's sunlight reflectivity), by monitoring the light intensity from the dark side of the Moon. By doing this they can measure the light variations that the Earth is emitting out into space, and thus calculate variations of the amount of light energy the Earth is absorbing from the Sun.

Is this list of cold extreme weather proof of a climate change during time of global warming?

The Great Global Warming Swindle
Must see program from British Channel 4...!

Important decisions of what will happen with the climate in the coming decade is made right now..!!
Not by any climatologist, not by politicians, not even by the IPCC, not by you and me..., but by the SUN!!!

Yes, by the Sun!!

Currently the Sun is at solar minima. It is now at its lowest activity level in the sunspot cycle, displaying only a few sun spots or showing no sunspot at all.

There exist a close relationship between the length of a sunspot cycle and the earth's temperature as displayed in figure 5.

All solar physicists are now looking with intense interest for the sun's next move.

On the 4th of January 2008, with the arrival of a new sunspot at a high latitude, a new solar cycle was born! Solar Cycle 24!

We have now entered a transition time between Solar cycle 23 and Solar Cycle24. This does not mean that we are now in Solar Cycle 24. That's something which happens first when the intensity of the new cycle is greater than the previous cycle.

So, when will we enter the new solar cycle 24?

Nobody really knows!...Already the start of the new solar cycle, solar cycle 24 have been severely delayed. It should have started in January 2007, but it didn't.
From the relationship between the Sun Spot Cycle length and the temperature, one can calculate that by each day the start of the next Solar Cycle is delayed, that that extra day's delay corresponds to about 1.4 thousand of a degree centigrade cooling of the Earth's climate.
With the appearance of the first sunspot of the next cycle in early 2008, this would cool the Earth by about 0.5 degree centigrade during the next Solar Cycle. This would be the case if this solar cycle would start at the same time as the first new sunspot of the new solar cycle appeared.

The problem is that this isn't the case. We have to wait until we finally enter the new solar cycle when the activity from the new cycle is stronger than the previous one, which should take at least one additional year. This should cool the Earth by about 1 degree centigrade.

With the current weak solar activity this could mean that it might take one year further. This would bring the extent of the delay of the new cycle to there year longer than normal. In either case we should expect the earth's mean temperatures to drop to levels not seen since the Little Ice Age within the next solar cycle.

What is happening right now signal a drastic shifts in the Earth's climate and we will likely see dramatic drops in temperature the coming decades, starting in the next coming years.

The well known 11 year Solar Cycle is not the only Solar Cycle. In fact there are several cyclical Solar Cycles working on longer time scales. It has been well known among solar physicists for a long time that the combining effect of these cycles will likely cause the climate to enter a cool phase in the early 21st century.

How deep will this change in climate be?
Nobody knows for certain, but it is now very likely that it will soon fall to levels that haven't been seen since the time of "The Little Ice Age".

Solar Movements!

New Jupiter sized planets are now repeatedly found around nearby stars. The method used to discover planets is by observing small movements in the Doppler Shift of the light emitted from those stars.

Our star, the Sun is also affected by large planets and wobbles back and forth by gravitational forces. The notion that the Sun is centered at a stable position in the center of the Solar System is therefore not correct.

As the four large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune orbit in their orbits  around the Sun they drag the Sun around at the center of the Solar System with irregular movements. The Sun is made of hot plasma and rotates with the highest rotation at the equator but slower at the poles.

As we know from physics, rotating gyros which are moved around wobbles. The same thing is true with the Sun, which is filled with plasma, magnetic fields and rotates. As a result, if the Sun is accelerated around fast, great internal forces act on the interior of The Sun that contain strong magnetic fields. This causes Sun Spots to appear and Solar Flares to erupt. On the other hand, if the movement on the Sun is small, less Solar activity manifest itself and the Sun goes into a more quiet mode.

Based on this theory, an amateur Solar researcher Dr. Theodor Landscheidt have studied the Sun's movements resulting from the gravitational pull from those planets and linked them to the observed larger solar cycles. He has also calculated periods with high and with low solar activities based in the Sun's movements.

The next period with low solar activity has now started and should reach its deepest point around 2030. It will start to manifest itself already during the next solar cycle. He has calculated that this period will be a Maunder type event. The current low activity will result in lower temperatures, but because of the time lag caused by the oceans we will likely only see noticeable drops in temperatures first within the next 2 to 3 years.

Further ominous signs that the Sun is entering a new phase comes from research done by NASA. The Sun's conveyer belt has recently slowed down to a creping crawl. The speed of the conveyer belt is thought to add to the regulation of the Sun's production of sunspots and solar eruptions.

The great irony or to be more exact the great tragedy is that while a hysterical world is preparing for a rapid temperature increase, the Earth is coincidentally heading at the same time for what is probably the most severe fall in temperature that the Earth have had experienced for several hundreds of years.

The global warming drenched mass media did extensive reporting from the meeting that the world leaders held at the UN in the autumn of 2007 and all but one of them repeated the same message, "that global warming is the greatest challenge mankind have ever faced" and "that now is time for drastic action to stop the rapid increase in temperatures".
The global warming hysterical media also reported repeatedly of the record low ice cover in the Artic and the open passage of the North West Passage.

However there are things you don't see in the global warming controlled news media, such as that the ice extent around Antarctica have been breaking new max record in September 2007 and that the winter of 2007 in the southern hemisphere has been unusually cold.

In fact because of the low solar wind pattern and also because of a prolonged La Niña event, in 2007-2008, we see a more extensive cloud formation pattern in large parts of the world. This is probably a contributing factor to a more extensive, more intense and more widespread monsoon pattern in the tropics.

An inconvenient truth is that a clear climate shift have already started. We see this for example in two of the poster children from the Nobel prize winner Al Gore's movie.

The glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro have started to increase during the past two years.

Lake Chad

Lake Chad in 2001, allegedly drying up as a result of human caused global warming.

Lake Chad in 2007, clip taken from Google map in October 2007 after the monsoon.
Oops!! The water in the lake is back!!

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Right Now The World Is Heading For A Combined Natural And Manmade Starving Disaster!

The Sun's activity is now very low. It will probably stay this low until 2010, making the current Solar Cycle 23 the longest solar cycle for over 200 years and this will result in low activity of the Solar Cycles 24 and 25.
The low solar activity during the current transition between Solar Cycle 23 and 24 is likely to take 4 years instead of the usual 1 year.

The result of this is that instead of the normal one year cooling of the Earth during this transition, this time the cooling will continue during 4 full years. This will cause a rapid drop of Earth's average temperature over the next coming years and initiate a new "Little Ice Age".

Similar rapid temperature drops have been well documented from historical records and from measurements from reliable temperature reconstructions. They are all linked by the same type of abrupt change in the solar motion. These changes in the solar motions occur at predictable and regular intervals driven by the changing gravitational forces from the solar system's big gas planets.

The current lower solar activity and the associated drop in temperatures are now right on schedule based on the current changes in the solar motion and its strong correlation with Earth's climate which have been well known by a few individuals who have studied this correlation.

Unfortunately this very important climatic effect has not been in the scientific mainstream and have been suppressed or ignored by the climatology community.

The global warming brainwashed news media have so far censured the fact that the Sun is now unusual inactive, that the periods of inactivity happens at regular interval and that these periods of solar inactivity all cause severe cooling on the Earth.

Right now the temperature have started to drop as a result of the weaker Sun. The signs can now be seen all over the Earth.

Except for a few people active in forums dedicated to solar physics there seem to be very few who have been able to connect the dots between the current low solar activity, the drop in temperatures and that we are fast approaching the same conditions that existed during solar minima during the "Little Ice Age".

Currently the price for wheat and corn are at record high levels and the supply is very low.

We don't know exactly how fast and how severe this cooling will be. There is now a real risk that the next solar cycle will be as inactive as those during the Maunder Minimum, given the current already very low solar activity.

If we are lucky, then we will only have a repeat of a Dalton type minimum, which is bad enough.

The coming solar minimum is now called The Gore Minimum, so named after the former US vice president, the best known promoter and businessman in the global warming disaster industry.

In either case, even if the World Community is preparing for global cooling and try to compensate food production in order to meet the reduction in arable land and the associated reduction in crop yield this will likely turn out to be a difficult task.

Right now, not only is the World totally unaware of the coming global cooling, in an effort to fight imaginary global warming, policies have been implemented which in reality greatly reduces food production.

These policies are opposite to what they should be in order to reduce the risk of devastating famines among people living in the third world.

Will the World be able to adapt food production to the reality of rapid global cooling, when the real cold sets in, despite the current policies to fight global warming?
Or
Will the policies implemented by Al Gore et. al., the eco pseudo scientists, the misguided politicians and all the others that have tried to cash in on the scam make them the greatest famine creating mass murderers since Mao Zedong's "Great Leap Forward" or Stalin's "collectivization of the Ukrainian farmers"?

In any case, it is urgent that the reality of global cooling will be recognized fast so that the world leaders can implement the right decisions as early as possible instead of continuing with the catastrophic polices they are doing now.

The reduction in food production will affect temperate regions including US and Canada in North America. It will also affect temperate regions in Europe, Russia, Ukraine and China. All important food production regions.

We know from historical records that during solar minima, in these regions, the growth seasons were reduced, less sunshine were received and more rainfall fell during summers.

If that weren't bad enough, we know from historical records that during these solar cold snaps, the monsoons over the Indian subcontinent were reduced and in some cases, completely failed. This effect is simultaneously affecting all monsoon activity regions in the tropics. Lower temperatures results in less water vapor in the atmosphere.

This reduction in rainfall does not start immediately. Instead it is manifested first when the air and water temperature over the Pacific and over the Indian Ocean have dropped as the World cools. This is not a large drop in temperature, but the drop in temperature still tends to lower the amount of water vapor in the tropics which then cause drop in rainfalls.

The reduction in the monsoons is more common when the temperature is at the lowest point during solar minima. It is also in effect when the temperature rebounds and the earth starts the warm up again at the end of the solar minima when the Sun once again becomes more active.

So what likely will happen, is that first the food production in the food baskets of North America and Eurasia will be reduced. Then this is followed by a reduction of the harvests in the tropics, in countries like India, China and Brazil 5 to 10 years later, while at the same time the food production in the temperate regions of the World will continue to stay low.

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